The UFC 251 Breakdown

Every Wednesday there is PPV, I will break down the three biggest fights on the card. This is just a breakdown of what I see as advantages and disadvantages for both fighters in their fight. I will make my official gambling picks Saturday at noon the day of the fight. Today I will breakdown all three title fights and highlight some fun fights on the undercard. Lets begin!!

Main Event: Usman v. Masvidal for the UFC Welterweight Title(170 lbs)

KEYS TO VICTORY:

USMAN: Kamara has a huge wrestling advantage being a D2 National champ. Don't look for this fight to look anything like his last fight against Covington. If all goes to plan for Usman, this should look like the Woodley fight where he will try and ragdoll Masvidal for five rounds. Usman is also a physical specimen and should have a strength and power advantage when it comes the grappling.

MASVIDAL: Jorge comes into this fight with a boat load of experience. 48 fights is the most a fighter in the UFC has ever had coming into their first title shot. The experience does not just stop with the 48 pro fights. Jorge has been famously fighting in the backyards of Miami since he was a teenager while guys would film it on their Razor phones and upload it to Youtube. Masvidal also will have the striking advantage. His speed and technique are very polished. 

IMPORTANT STATS:*

USMAN: 100% Takedown Defense, 50% Takedown attempt accuracy, 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, 52% Striking accuracy

MASVIDAL: 48 Pro MMA fights, 78% Takedown Defense, 47% Striking accuracy, 66% Striking Defense, 4.33 Strikes landed per minute

NOTABLE WINS:

USMAN: Woodley(UD), Covington(TKO), Edwards(UD), Dos Anjos(UD)

MASVIDAL: Till(KO), Daiz(Doctor stoppage), Cerrone(TKO), Chiesa(SUB), Askren(KO)

Co-Main Event: Holloway v. Volkanovski 2 for the UFC Featherweight Title(145 lbs)

KEYS TO VICTORY:

HOLLOWAY: Max is the taller and longer man. He needs to use his reach to keep Alex at distance. He did his best work in the first fight when he would jab or use kicks to keep Alex away. Max has also been in seven title fights in his UFC career which means he comes with a wealth a experience in five round fights. Max is also no slouch if this fight goes to the ground, he was a nasty guillotine choke.

VOLKANOVSKI: Alex should have a slight power advantage. He use to weight around 215 when he was rugby player and that power does not leave you when you get smaller. Alex also has the benefit of winning the first fight, which is always an advantage. I would also say Alex is the stronger of the two and might look for takedown to mix things up

IMPORTANT STATS:

HOLLOWAY: 6.66 Strikes landed per minute, 44% Striking accuracy, 62% Striking Defense, 4.45 Strikes absorbed per minute

VOLKANOVSKI: 6.15 Strikes landed per minute, 57% Striking accuracy, 59% Striking Defense, 3.14 Strikes absorbed per minute

NOTABLE WINS:

HOLLOWAY: Aldo(TKO)2X, Ortega(Doctor stoppage), Pettis(TKO), Swanson(SUB), Edgar(UD)

VOLKANOVSKI: Holloway(UD), Aldo(UD), Mendes(KO), Elkins(UD)

   

Third Fight: Yan v. Aldo for the UFC Bantamweight Title(135 lbs)

KEYS TO VICTORY:

YAN: Coming from a kickboxing background, Yan will look use his speed and technique of his striking to catch Aldo on the counter like he has done in many of his past fights. Petr is also the younger and fresher fighter with not as much damage taken throughout his career as Aldo.

ALDO: The OG king of the 145ers, Aldo has been in 14 title fights in his UFC/WEC career. His striking will crisp like it has been for years but do not sleep on his BJJ. If he has trouble on the feet with Yan, look for Aldo to use that BJJ black belt.

IMPORTANT STATS:

YAN: 67% Striking Defense, 46% Striking accuracy, 5.65 Strikes landed per minute, 3.15 Strikes absorbed per minute

ALDO: 65% Striking Defense, 44% Striking accuracy, 3.47 Strikes landed per minute, 3.18 Strikes absorbed per minute

NOTABLE WINS:

YAN: Faber(KO), Rivera(UD), Dodson(UD),

ALDO: Edgar(UD)2X, Mendes(KO,UD), Jung(TKO), Faber(UD), Stephens(TKO)

Other Notable Fights:

Andrade v Namajunas-(115)

Oezdemir v Prochazka-(205)

Dos Santos v Salikhov-(170)

Tybura v Grishin-(Heavyweight)

*All stats are from ufcstats.com