Breakdown: UFC 252

 Breakdown: UFC 252

Miocic v Cormier: Heavyweight Title

Miocic(-110): Stipe is what many people consider the greatest heavyweight fighter in UFC history, and if you look at the numbers it is easy to see why people think this way. He is tied for forth all time in the division with nine KO/TKOs. He has the most performance bonuses in the history of the heavyweights with nine of them to his name. There are tons of other stats and facts I could write here that point to him being the best of all time but for this fight, his last two fights are that matter. Stipe lost the first fight by first round KO after DC hit him with a sneaky right hand after breaking from clinch position. Some say it was a fluke but I digress. The second fight was more competitive with DC winning the first three rounds and Stipe coming out in the forth with great adjustments and got the KO in a great comeback. It will be interesting to see which strategy he goes with. To me there are two paths for him. One is stay on the outside, and he uses his reach and picks DC apart. The second is try and take DC down and see how well he can fight of his back. DC has only been in bottom position for a Heavyweight record of 12 seconds his whole career. I would love to see him at least try and take him down and bust him up a little bit. The scales play a big factor too. Miocic should come in somewhere between 240 and 230.

IMPORTANT STATS: 73% Takedown Defense, 37% Takedown Accuracy, 4.95 Strikes Landed per Minute, 52% Striking Accuracy.

NOTABLE WINS: Cormier(KO), N'Gannou(UD), Dos Santos(KO), Overeem(TKO), Werdum(KO), Hunt(KO)

Cormier(-120): This will be Daniels last fight win or lose. A first ballot hall of famer, DC has had one of the most storied careers in the UFC. If he wants to end his career on a high note there are some key things that will have to happen. First is his weight. If he comes in at 240 or higher, that is a red flag. He needs to come in and be lean and trim to be ready to go a possible five rounds. The second key is for him to mix in his wrestling. DC has some of the best wrestling in the game so he needs to use it to his advantage. The last key is don't get complacent and stick to whatever game plan he has. In the second fight he thought he could coast because he was winning and that is when the trouble started for him. It is also going to be hard to tell where his mind will be with this being his last fight. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 52% Striking Accuracy, 44% Takedown Accuracy, 1.95 Takedowns per 15 Minutes, 56% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Miocic(KO), Lewis(SUB), Oezdemir(SUB), Johnson(SUB)X2, Silva(UD), Gustatsson(SD), Henderson(SUB) 

O'Malley v Vera:

O'Malley(-315): The hype train is full steam ahead for Sean. The only fighter with an undefeated fighter on the card, O'Malley has the potential to be one of the biggest stars in UFC history. At only 25 years old, he has time on his side. Sean uses his long length and sniper like striking accuracy to dismantle his opponents. We haven't seen a whole lot of his ground game in the UFC but from what I saw in his grappling matches at Quintet Ultra, he can hold his own down there too. If he gets a win Saturday night, we will be witness to a star shooting to the moon as fast as Conor McGregor. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 6.86 Strikes Landed per Minute, 58% Striking Accuracy, 66% Striking Defense, 3.75 Strikes Absorbed per Minute

NOTABLE WINS: Wineland(KO), Quinonez(TKO), Soukhamthath(UD)

Vera(+245): Do NOT sleep on Chito Vera. He is one of the most underrated fighter at 135. He is in the top ten all time in the Bantamweight Division in total fights, wins, and finishes. He is tied for third all time in submission wins. He came into the UFC at 21 and now at 27 years old he brings a wealth of experience in the octagon. He has never been finished and has never really been dominated in a lose. He does have a habit of starting slow and losing early rounds. Chito needs to make Sean feel as uncomfortable as possible and then use his experience to capitalize on it. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 3.7 Strikes Landed per Minute, 48% Striking Accuracy, 52% Striking Defense, 4.11 Strikes Absorbed per Minute

NOTABLE WINS: Ewell(TKO), Saenz(KO), Kelleher(SUB), Pickett(KO)

Dos Santos v Rozenstruik:

Dos Santos(+130): Junior was one of my favorite fighters growing up. When he knocked out Cain in less than a minute on the first UFC card on FOX, it was one of my earliest MMA memories. Unfortunately, that was in 2011 and he is just not the same guy. He still has great striking but he does seem a little gun shy in the last couple of years. One factor to look for is what kind of shape he comes in. Based on some of the pictures that I have seen, he is going to be shredded and in great shape. He needs to mix it up and look to try and get this fight to the ground at some point if he finds himself in trouble on the feet.

IMPORTANT STATS: 4.66 Strikes Landed per minute, 48% Striking Accuracy, 3.13 Strikes Absorbed per Minute, 58% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Lewis(KO), Tuivasa(KO), Rothwell(UD), Miocic(UD), Hunt(KO), Mir(TKO), Velasquez(KO), Carwin(UD), Werdum(KO)

Rozenstruik(-160): "Bigi Boy" always brings the pain. An expert kickboxer with 77 wins and 65 of them coming by way of KO in kickboxing. Yes, he is a one trick pony and has little to no ground game, but at heavyweight a fighter can get away with that more than other divisions. He did show that his power can carry into the later rounds when he knocked out Overeem in the last ten seconds of a five round fight that he was losing. Jairzinho needs to keep the fight on the feet and find that one shot that can turn Juniors lights out. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 75% Takedown Defense, 34% Striking Defense, 48% Striking Accuracy, 3.84 Strikes Landed per minute

NOTABLE WINS: Overeem(KO), Arlovski(KO), Crowder(KO), AlbiniI(KO), Kovalev(SD)

Best of the Rest: Other Fun Fights on this Card

Dodson(+200) v Dvalishvili(-240)

Burns(-280) v Pineda(+240)

Brown(-150) v Chavez(+130)

Miller(+105) v Pichel(-125)

I will post a blog after the weigh-ins tomorrow breaking down what I see there. My picks will get posted Saturday a couple of hours before the card starts.👊