Breakdown: UFC: Holm vs Aldana

 Breakdown: UFC: Holm vs Aldana

UFC on ESPN 16 Betting Breakdown: Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana -  MMAOddsBreaker

Holm vs Aldana: 135lbs

Holm(-125), MMA Record: 13-5, UFC Record: 6-5, Age: 38, Current Steak: One Win: Holm seems to always be somewhere near a title shot at 135lbs. This show that the division isn't the deepest one, but it also highlights the fact that she has stayed ranked in the top 5 for years which is a testament to her. Her game plan has never really changed in all these years. She will stay on the outside and try and use her world champ level boxing to find an opening or capitalize on one of her opponents mistakes. She is tied for third all time at 135lbs in total fight night bonuses. She has also only spent 6.74% of her total fight time in bottom position, which means it is hard to keep her down if you get her down. At 38 years old, one does have to wonder how much longer she can keep this up at the level she has for so long.

*IMPORTANT STATS: 2.75 Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute, 35% Striking Accuracy, 2.8 Sig Strikes Absorbed per Minute, 57% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Pennington(UD,SD), Anderson(UD), Correia(TKO), Rousey(TKO), Reneau(UD)

Aldana(+100), MMA Record: 12-5, UFC Record: 5-3, Age: 32, Current Streak: Two Wins: Aldana is looking to push her way up to the top of the division with a win Saturday. She has put together a good resume as of late winning five of her last six fights. She is a sneaky good striker with a good ground game too. She is second all time at 135lbs in total significant strikes landed with 667 strikes and strikes landed per minute with 6.16. She also has the highest takedown defense in the divisions history at 93.5%, so good luck taking her down. Don't be surprised if you see her take her opponent down and getting one of those submissions she has in her back pocket for the win. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 6.16 Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute, 93% Takedown Defense, 38% Striking Accuracy, 63% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Vieira(KO), Melo(UD), Correia(SUB)

De Castro vs Felipe: Heavyweight 

De Castro(-265), MMA Record: 6-1, UFC Record: 1-1, Age: 32, Current Streak: One Lose: Yorgan is a big power puncher. He has KO power in each hand and can shut the lights off of his opponents in a split second. His last fight against Greg Hardy, it looked like he had a hard time pulling the trigger, so I would look for him to be extra aggressive. He has only been to a decision twice in his career, once in a win and once in a lose. This fight should be fireworks as long in doesn't go long and become one of those sloppy big boy fights.

IMPORTANT STATS: 2.19 Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute, 41% Striking Accuracy, 2.99 Sig. Strikes  Absorbed per Minute, 54% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Taft(KO), Meeks(KO)

Felipe(+220), MMA Record: 8-1, UFC Record: 0-1, Age: 25, Current Streak: One Lose: Carlos is a dangerous striker from Brazil. We don't have a lot to go off of because he only has one UFC fight and he lost it. I just hope someone gets knocked out in the first round in this one or it could get ugly really quick. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 2.93 Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute, 36% Striking Accuracy, 4.87 Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute, 51% Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: N/A

De Randamie vs Pena: 135lbs 

De Randamie(-120), MMA Record: 9-4, UFC Record: 6-2, Age: 36, Current Streak: One Lose: Germaine is one of the best kickboxers in womans MMA today. Her timing and accuracy is world class. She is also sneaky strong, with good takedown defense. Her only losses in the UFC have come to Amanda Nunes, which is nothing to shake your head at. She has the second most KO/TKO wins in the history of the 135lb division with 3 and total knockdowns landed with 2. She has the sixth shortest average fight time at just around 10 minutes per fight. Finally, she has the highest significant strike defense in the divisions history at 66.5%. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 71% Takedown Defense, 64% Striking Defense, 47% Striking Defense, 2.72 Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute

NOTABLE WINS: Ladd(KO), Pennington(UD), Holm(UD), Elmose(TKO)

Pena(-105), MMA Record: 9-3, UFC Record: 5-1, Age: 31, Current Streak: One Win: Pena makes her return after over a year off. She is one of the most complete fighters in the division. She has good striking and can take the fight to ground and dominate there too. Her only lose in the UFC is to Shevchenko. She is first all time at 135lbs in strikes absorbed per minute at 1.51 strikes. She has the forth highest takedown accuracy at 52.4%. A win here would put her in prime position for another title shot, this time against Nunes. 

IMPORTANT STATS: 52% Takedown Accuracy, 1.51 Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute, 51% Striking Accuracy, 47%  Striking Defense

NOTABLE WINS: Montano(UD), Zingano(UD), Eye(UD)

UNDER THE RADAR FIGHTS:

Condit(+115) vs McGee(-140), Culibao(+350) vs Jourdian(-455), Kenny(-315) vs Alateng(+250)

*All stats are from http://ufcstats.com/event-details/805ad1801eb26abb



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